Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 30

Cukaricki–Radnicki 1923

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 9 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cukaricki		Radnicki 1923
11	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
405	Passes	392
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cukaricki 1.50 · Radnicki 1923 1.20. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Cukaricki 11 · Radnicki 1923 13; on target 2 and 1.

Referee

S. Jeknic→

3.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “Radnicki 1923 to win” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Cukaricki, 1.20 for Radnicki 1923.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,041 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cukaricki to win43.4%

Draw27.5%

Radnicki 1923 to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cukaricki lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time41.5%

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Cukaricki ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Radnicki 1923 ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1041 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cukaricki: at least 16Actual: 17
Radnicki 1923: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Cukaricki: at least 3Actual: 3
Radnicki 1923: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cukaricki score1.50

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.20

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.9%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.