Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 30

Novi Pazar–FK Partizan

2–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 9 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'FK PartizanD. Seck (assist: N. Trifunović)
45'Novi PazarDriton Camaj
50'FK PartizanS. Polter (assist: D. Seck)
52'Novi PazarV. Kotzebue (assist: D. Sadi)
56'FK PartizanM. Vukotić (assist: S. Polter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Novi Pazar		FK Partizan
14	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
398	Passes	428
313	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Novi Pazar 1.29 · FK Partizan 1.44. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Novi Pazar 14 · FK Partizan 10; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

P. Ilic→

3.57

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “Novi Pazar to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Novi Pazar, 1.44 for FK Partizan.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,040 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Novi Pazar to win32.6%

Draw27.6%

FK Partizan to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Novi Pazar lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time40.8%

FK Partizan lead at half-time32.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Novi Pazar ahead or level67.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or FK Partizan ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1040 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Novi Pazar: at least 13Actual: 8
FK Partizan: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 6
FK Partizan: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.29

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Partizan score1.44

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.6%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.