Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 30

TSC Backa Topola–IMT Novi Beograd

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 8 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

52'IMT Novi BeogradV. Novicic (penalty)
57'IMT Novi BeogradC. Keïta (assist: S. Karamoko)
77'IMT Novi BeogradC. Keïta (assist: N. Krstic)
80'TSC Backa TopolaR. Bosic (assist: A. Todoroski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		IMT Novi Beograd
4	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	3
2	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	5
7	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
426	Passes	363
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 1.40 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.11. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 4 · IMT Novi Beograd 9; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

N. Minakovic→

5.14

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for TSC Backa Topola, 1.11 for IMT Novi Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (1X — TSC Backa Topola win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,036 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win42.9%

Draw28.6%

IMT Novi Beograd to win28.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time42.6%

Level at half-time43.4%

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time14.0%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level86.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or IMT Novi Beograd ahead57.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1036 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 14Actual: 11
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 4Actual: 2
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.40

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.11

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–010.6%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.