Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 29

IMT Novi Beograd–Vojvodina

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		Vojvodina
8	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
286	Passes	377
179	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.24 · Vojvodina 1.41. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 8 · Vojvodina 4; on target 5 and 1.
Vojvodina kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Ilic→

6.60

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “IMT Novi Beograd to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.41 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,033 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win31.9%

Draw28.1%

Vojvodina to win40.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time16.7%

Level at half-time42.4%

Vojvodina lead at half-time40.9%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level59.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead83.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1033 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 13Actual: 21
Vojvodina: at least 13Actual: 19

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 2
Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.24

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.41

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.5%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.