Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 29

Napredak–TSC Backa Topola

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'TSC Backa TopolaM. Milosavic (assist: Stefan Jovanović)
23'TSC Backa TopolaM. Šatara
68'NapredakA. Majdevac (assist: N. Bastajic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napredak		TSC Backa Topola
12	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	4
4	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
378	Passes	315
277	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napredak 1.01 · TSC Backa Topola 1.68. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Napredak 12 · TSC Backa Topola 14; on target 2 and 7.
Napredak kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Zivkovic→

6.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.8%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Napredak, 1.68 for TSC Backa Topola.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (X2 — draw or TSC Backa Topola win).
These values were computed from 1,029 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napredak to win21.3%

Draw26.0%

TSC Backa Topola to win52.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Napredak lead at half-time17.6%

Level at half-time43.3%

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time39.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Napredak ahead or level60.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or TSC Backa Topola ahead82.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1029 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napredak: at least 13Actual: 13
TSC Backa Topola: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

Napredak: at least 3Actual: 7
TSC Backa Topola: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napredak score1.01

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.68

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–210.7%0–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.