Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 28

Mladost Lucani–FK Partizan

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Mladost LucaniJ. Ciric (assist: M. Todosijevic)
35'Mladost LucaniM. Orescanin · red card
89'FK PartizanS. Polter (assist: V. Đurđević)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mladost Lucani		FK Partizan
6	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	10
6	Shots inside the box	10
9	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
22%	Possession	78%
196	Passes	726
112	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mladost Lucani 0.85 · FK Partizan 1.92. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Mladost Lucani 6 · FK Partizan 19; on target 3 and 10.
FK Partizan kept the ball more (78%).

Referee

D. Trifkovic→

2.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.6%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.85 for Mladost Lucani, 1.92 for FK Partizan.
The highest double chance value is 85.4% (X2 — draw or FK Partizan win).
These values were computed from 1,024 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mladost Lucani to win14.6%

Draw22.8%

FK Partizan to win62.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time15.0%

Level at half-time39.7%

FK Partizan lead at half-time45.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Mladost Lucani ahead or level54.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or FK Partizan ahead85.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1024 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mladost Lucani: at least 12Actual: 5
FK Partizan: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 7
FK Partizan: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mladost Lucani score0.85

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Partizan score1.92

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.92 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.8%1–111.6%0–111.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.