Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 28

Vojvodina–Napredak

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'VojvodinaA. Vukanović (assist: L. Ranđelović)
30'VojvodinaM. Velickovic (assist: L. Ranđelović)
63'VojvodinaL. Ranđelović (assist: M. Velickovic)
79'NapredakN. Bogdanovski (assist: J. Ilić)
81'VojvodinaD. Kokanović (assist: M. Velickovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vojvodina		Napredak
19	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	3
16	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
1	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
505	Passes	315
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vojvodina 2.50 · Napredak 0.56. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Vojvodina 19 · Napredak 5; on target 9 and 3.
Vojvodina kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Markovic→

4.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.7%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.50 for Vojvodina, 0.56 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 94.7% (1X — Vojvodina win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,023 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vojvodina to win80.7%

Draw14.0%

Napredak to win5.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	3

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Vojvodina lead at half-time62.7%

Level at half-time32.0%

Napredak lead at half-time5.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Vojvodina ahead or level94.7%

12 — not level at half-time68.0%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead37.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1023 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vojvodina: at least 14Actual: 13
Napredak: at least 12Actual: 3

Corners

Vojvodina: at least 6Actual: 8
Napredak: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vojvodina score2.50

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score0.56

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.1%3–012.7%1–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.