Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 28

Javor–Novi Pazar

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
Javor		Novi Pazar
8	Shots	19
1	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
351	Passes	424
262	Accurate passes	342
12	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Javor 1.19 · Novi Pazar 1.26. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Javor 8 · Novi Pazar 19; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

M. Milanovic→

3.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “Novi Pazar to win”. Second comes “Javor to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Javor, 1.26 for Novi Pazar.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,021 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Javor to win33.4%

Draw29.4%

Novi Pazar to win37.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Javor lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time43.8%

Novi Pazar lead at half-time26.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Javor ahead or level73.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Novi Pazar ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1021 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Javor: at least 12Actual: 12
Novi Pazar: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Javor: at least 3Actual: 2
Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Javor score1.19

Attack: Javor score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.26

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–110.0%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.