Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 27

Radnicki 1923–Vojvodina

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.6% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'VojvodinaJ. Uzuegbunam (assist: M. Vidosavljevic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		Vojvodina
6	Shots	10
0	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
355	Passes	355
248	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 1.37 · Vojvodina 1.39. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Radnicki 1923 6 · Vojvodina 10; on target 0 and 5.

Referee

M. Mitic→

3.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “Radnicki 1923 to win” at 35.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Radnicki 1923, 1.39 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,018 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win35.9%

Draw27.5%

Vojvodina to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time34.9%

Level at half-time41.7%

Vojvodina lead at half-time23.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level76.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead65.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1018 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 13Actual: 8
Vojvodina: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 3Actual: 4
Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.37

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.39

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–29.1%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.