Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 27

IMT Novi Beograd–FK Crvena Zvezda

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'IMT Novi BeogradS. Karamoko (assist: O. Lebi)
40'FK Crvena ZvezdaV. Kostov
45'FK Crvena ZvezdaA. Katai (assist: M. Arnautovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		FK Crvena Zvezda
8	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
29%	Possession	71%
224	Passes	566
148	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 0.71 · FK Crvena Zvezda 2.40. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 8 · FK Crvena Zvezda 15; on target 3 and 6.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

L. Lukic→

2.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.7%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.71 for IMT Novi Beograd, 2.40 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
The highest double chance value is 92.2% (X2 — draw or FK Crvena Zvezda win).
These values were computed from 1,017 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win7.8%

Draw16.4%

FK Crvena Zvezda to win75.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	4

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time2.9%

Level at half-time30.5%

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time66.6%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level33.4%

12 — not level at half-time69.5%

X2 — level or FK Crvena Zvezda ahead97.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1017 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 13Actual: 18
FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 11Actual: 4

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 3Actual: 4
FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score0.71

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.40

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 117% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.3%0–310.6%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.