Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 27

Novi Pazar–Cukaricki

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Novi PazarV. Kotzebue (assist: D. Sadi)
30'CukarickiA. Cisse
77'CukarickiM. Djokovic · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Novi Pazar		Cukaricki
10	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
345	Passes	340
273	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Novi Pazar 1.54 · Cukaricki 1.13. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Novi Pazar 10 · Cukaricki 14; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

N. Simovic→

3.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Novi Pazar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Novi Pazar, 1.13 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (1X — Novi Pazar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,015 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Novi Pazar to win46.3%

Draw27.3%

Cukaricki to win26.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Novi Pazar lead at half-time41.9%

Level at half-time38.7%

Cukaricki lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Novi Pazar ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead58.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1015 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Novi Pazar: at least 13Actual: 15
Cukaricki: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 4
Cukaricki: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.54

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.13

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–110.2%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.