Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 27

FK Partizan–TSC Backa Topola

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

6'FK PartizanV. Dragojević (assist: Milan Roganović)
35'FK PartizanVukašin Đurđević
40'TSC Backa TopolaM. Milosavic (assist: A. Todoroski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Partizan		TSC Backa Topola
15	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	6
14	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
2	Corners	8
0	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
418	Passes	360
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 1.82 · TSC Backa Topola 0.99. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FK Partizan 15 · TSC Backa Topola 14; on target 8 and 6.

Referee

M. Milanovic→

3.50

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.7%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for FK Partizan, 0.99 for TSC Backa Topola.
The highest double chance value is 81.1% (1X — FK Partizan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,014 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win56.7%

Draw24.4%

TSC Backa Topola to win18.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FK Partizan win or draw81.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.6%

X2 — draw or TSC Backa Topola win43.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

FK Partizan lead at half-time48.5%

Level at half-time39.3%

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time12.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Partizan ahead or level87.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or TSC Backa Topola ahead51.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1014 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Partizan: at least 12Actual: 9
TSC Backa Topola: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

FK Partizan: at least 4Actual: 2
TSC Backa Topola: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score1.82

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score0.99

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1014 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.