Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 26

TSC Backa Topola–Železničar Pančevo

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		Železničar Pančevo
18	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
423	Passes	375
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 1.36 · Železničar Pančevo 1.06. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 18 · Železničar Pančevo 6; on target 7 and 1.

Referee

S. Jeknic→

2.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for TSC Backa Topola, 1.06 for Železničar Pančevo.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (1X — TSC Backa Topola win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,004 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win43.1%

Draw29.1%

Železničar Pančevo to win27.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	5

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time45.2%

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Železničar Pančevo ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1004 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 15Actual: 11
Železničar Pančevo: at least 13Actual: 5

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 4Actual: 6
Železničar Pančevo: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.36

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.06

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–011.3%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.