Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 25

Napredak–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVLincoln (assist: Ezequiel)
90'NapredakA. Majdevac (assist: M. Bubanj)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napredak		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
9	Shots	25
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	7
4	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
463	Passes	310
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napredak 1.31 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.29. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Napredak 9 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 25; on target 2 and 5.
Napredak kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

A. Stojanovic→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Napredak to win”. Second comes “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Napredak, 1.29 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,001 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napredak to win36.2%

Draw28.5%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win35.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Napredak lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time42.5%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Napredak ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1001 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napredak: at least 13Actual: 7
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 9

Corners

Napredak: at least 3Actual: 3
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napredak score1.31

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.29

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%2–18.9%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.