Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 25

FK Partizan–OFK Beograd

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 13%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'FK PartizanA. Kostic (assist: D. Seck)
44'OFK BeogradM. Rodić
90'OFK BeogradM. Rodić

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Partizan		OFK Beograd
11	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
370	Passes	348
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 2.18 · OFK Beograd 0.93. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FK Partizan 11 · OFK Beograd 10; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

M. Ilic→

8.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.2%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for FK Partizan, 0.93 for OFK Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 86.6% (1X — FK Partizan win or draw).
These values were computed from 999 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win66.2%

Draw20.3%

OFK Beograd to win13.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

FK Partizan lead at half-time55.7%

Level at half-time34.7%

OFK Beograd lead at half-time9.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Partizan ahead or level90.4%

12 — not level at half-time65.3%

X2 — level or OFK Beograd ahead44.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 999 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Partizan: at least 13Actual: 14
OFK Beograd: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

FK Partizan: at least 4Actual: 5
OFK Beograd: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score2.18

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFK Beograd score0.93

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.8%1–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.