Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 25

Železničar Pančevo–Vojvodina

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Železničar PančevoS. PirgiÄ (penalty)
28'Železničar PančevoKwaku Karikari (assist: S. Pedro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Železničar Pančevo		Vojvodina
11	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	10
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	9
0	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
317	Passes	371
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Železničar Pančevo 1.15 · Vojvodina 1.37. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Železničar Pančevo 11 · Vojvodina 18; on target 5 and 8.
Vojvodina kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

N. Simovic→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “Železničar Pančevo to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Železničar Pančevo, 1.37 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 998 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Železničar Pančevo to win30.1%

Draw28.7%

Vojvodina to win41.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time42.8%

Vojvodina lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Železničar Pančevo ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 998 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Železničar Pančevo: at least 12Actual: 12
Vojvodina: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Železničar Pančevo: at least 4Actual: 7
Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.15

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.37

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–110.2%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.