Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 24

TSC Backa Topola–Cukaricki

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'TSC Backa TopolaA. Petrovic
87'CukarickiN. Miletić (assist: Marko Docić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		Cukaricki
22	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
326	Passes	335
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 1.46 · Cukaricki 1.22. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 22 · Cukaricki 8; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

D. Matic→

5.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “Cukaricki to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for TSC Backa Topola, 1.22 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 994 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win42.0%

Draw27.7%

Cukaricki to win30.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time27.8%

Level at half-time43.1%

Cukaricki lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead72.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 994 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 14Actual: 15
Cukaricki: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 4Actual: 8
Cukaricki: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.46

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.22

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.8%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.