Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 24

Radnicki NIS–IMT Novi Beograd

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Radnicki NISA. Shestyuk
52'IMT Novi BeogradS. Šapić (assist: V. Novicic)
90'Radnicki NISFranck Kanouté

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki NIS		IMT Novi Beograd
6	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	1
2	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	7
3	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
446	Passes	384
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki NIS 1.41 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.19. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Radnicki NIS 6 · IMT Novi Beograd 6; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

P. Janjus→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “Radnicki NIS to win”. Second comes “IMT Novi Beograd to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Radnicki NIS, 1.19 for IMT Novi Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 991 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki NIS to win41.4%

Draw28.2%

IMT Novi Beograd to win30.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time40.1%

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time14.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki NIS ahead or level85.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or IMT Novi Beograd ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 991 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki NIS: at least 14Actual: 9
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Radnicki NIS: at least 4Actual: 1
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.41

Attack: Radnicki NIS score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.19

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.6%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.