Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 24

Vojvodina–Novi Pazar

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Novi PazarDriton Camaj (assist: Stefan Stanisavljević)
45'Novi PazarStefan Stanisavljević (assist: I. Davidović)
77'Novi PazarDriton Camaj (assist: D. Sadi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vojvodina		Novi Pazar
16	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
13	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
467	Passes	259
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vojvodina 1.77 · Novi Pazar 1.01. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Vojvodina 16 · Novi Pazar 7; on target 3 and 5.
Vojvodina kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

S. Jeknic→

3.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.1%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for Vojvodina, 1.01 for Novi Pazar.
The highest double chance value is 80.1% (1X — Vojvodina win or draw).
These values were computed from 990 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vojvodina to win55.1%

Draw25.0%

Novi Pazar to win19.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

3	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Vojvodina lead at half-time41.0%

Level at half-time40.6%

Novi Pazar lead at half-time18.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Vojvodina ahead or level81.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Novi Pazar ahead59.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 990 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vojvodina: at least 13Actual: 3
Novi Pazar: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 13
Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vojvodina score1.77

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.01

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.8%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.