Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 24

Radnik Surdulica–Napredak

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion FK Radnik, Sudulika

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'NapredakU. Sremcevic (assist: N. Bogdanovski)
76'NapredakStefan Bukorac · red card
78'Radnik SurdulicaA. Pejović (penalty)
79'NapredakM. Vulić · red card
83'Radnik SurdulicaM. Novaković (assist: H. Hajdarevic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnik Surdulica		Napredak
21	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
494	Passes	266
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnik Surdulica 1.93 · Napredak 0.77. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Radnik Surdulica 21 · Napredak 5; on target 4 and 2.
Radnik Surdulica kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

D. Nikolic→

3.80

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.1%: “Radnik Surdulica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Radnik Surdulica, 0.77 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 87.3% (1X — Radnik Surdulica win or draw).
These values were computed from 988 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnik Surdulica to win65.1%

Draw22.2%

Napredak to win12.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 0–1

Radnik Surdulica lead at half-time67.2%

Level at half-time29.1%

Napredak lead at half-time3.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnik Surdulica ahead or level96.3%

12 — not level at half-time70.9%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead32.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 988 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnik Surdulica: at least 15Actual: 14
Napredak: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Radnik Surdulica: at least 5Actual: 8
Napredak: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnik Surdulica score1.93

Attack: Radnik Surdulica score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score0.77

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnik Surdulica concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%1–012.4%1–111.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.