Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 23

IMT Novi Beograd–Javor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 16 February 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'IMT Novi BeogradFarid Boulaya (assist: N. Krstic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		Javor
20	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	1
1	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
353	Passes	347
262	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.43 · Javor 1.17. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 20 · Javor 4; on target 4 and 0.

Referee

A. Zivkovic→

6.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “Javor to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.17 for Javor.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 987 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win42.2%

Draw28.2%

Javor to win29.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time43.4%

Javor lead at half-time34.4%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level65.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Javor ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 987 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 13Actual: 19
Javor: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 5Actual: 8
Javor: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.43

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Javor score1.17

Attack: Javor score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–09.7%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.