Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 21

TSC Backa Topola–Vojvodina

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'VojvodinaA. Vukanović (assist: M. Kolarevic)
67'VojvodinaM. Kolarevic (assist: L. Ranđelović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		Vojvodina
19	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
471	Passes	279
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 1.17 · Vojvodina 1.33. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 19 · Vojvodina 8; on target 7 and 3.
TSC Backa Topola kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

D. Trifkovic→

1.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “TSC Backa Topola to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for TSC Backa Topola, 1.33 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 970 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win31.5%

Draw28.9%

Vojvodina to win39.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time44.6%

Vojvodina lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 970 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 14Actual: 11
Vojvodina: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 4Actual: 6
Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.17

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.33

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–110.0%1–29.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.