Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 21

FK Partizan–Radnicki NIS

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'Radnicki NISFranck Kanouté · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Partizan		Radnicki NIS
24	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	0
12	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
469	Passes	225
403	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 2.30 · Radnicki NIS 0.80. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FK Partizan 24 · Radnicki NIS 5; on target 5 and 0.
FK Partizan kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

M. Mitic→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.9%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.30 for FK Partizan, 0.80 for Radnicki NIS.
The highest double chance value is 90.0% (1X — FK Partizan win or draw).
These values were computed from 966 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win71.9%

Draw18.1%

Radnicki NIS to win10.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,222 predictions were correct (74.6%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Partizan lead at half-time57.5%

Level at half-time34.0%

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time8.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Partizan ahead or level91.5%

12 — not level at half-time66.0%

X2 — level or Radnicki NIS ahead42.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 966 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Partizan: at least 12Actual: 17
Radnicki NIS: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

FK Partizan: at least 4Actual: 10
Radnicki NIS: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score2.30

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnicki NIS score0.80

Attack: Radnicki NIS score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.2%2–110.5%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.