Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 21

Napredak–Javor

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'NapredakA. Majdevac (assist: A. Lutovac)
17'JavorL. Bayere Junior (assist: M. Bjeković)
39'JavorPetar Petrović (assist: D. Skoko)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napredak		Javor
7	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
579	Passes	245
499	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napredak 1.23 · Javor 1.39. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Napredak 7 · Javor 13; on target 3 and 3.
Napredak kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

L. Lukic→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Javor to win”. Second comes “Napredak to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Napredak, 1.39 for Javor.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 964 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napredak to win32.0%

Draw28.2%

Javor to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	22

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Napredak lead at half-time19.4%

Level at half-time43.3%

Javor lead at half-time37.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Napredak ahead or level62.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Javor ahead80.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 964 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napredak: at least 13Actual: 9
Javor: at least 13Actual: 22

Corners

Napredak: at least 4Actual: 4
Javor: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napredak score1.23

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Javor score1.39

Attack: Javor score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.5%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.