Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 15

Radnicki 1923–Cukaricki

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 17 December 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Radnicki 1923O. Sahli (assist: K. Bevis)
40'Radnicki 1923Issa Bah (assist: K. Bevis)
45'CukarickiL. Tufegdžić
74'Radnicki 1923E. Sokler (assist: Dimitrije Nikolic)
90'CukarickiF. Matijasevic (assist: Marko Docić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		Cukaricki
18	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
278	Passes	419
178	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 1.61 · Cukaricki 1.18. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Radnicki 1923 18 · Cukaricki 11; on target 9 and 6.
Cukaricki kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

M. Markovic→

2.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.8%: “Radnicki 1923 to win”. Second comes “Cukaricki to win” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Radnicki 1923, 1.18 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 955 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win46.8%

Draw26.6%

Cukaricki to win26.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time34.6%

Level at half-time42.1%

Cukaricki lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead65.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 955 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 14Actual: 10
Cukaricki: at least 15Actual: 17

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 4Actual: 2
Cukaricki: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.61

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.18

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.3%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.