Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 6

FK Crvena Zvezda–Cukaricki

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 4 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Veljkovic
54'FK Crvena ZvezdaA. Katai
60'FK Crvena ZvezdaBruno Duarte (assist: A. Katai)
90+2'FK Crvena ZvezdaF. Tebo Uchenna · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		Cukaricki
15	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
447	Passes	400
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 3.01 · Cukaricki 0.54. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 15 · Cukaricki 17; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

D. Trifkovic→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 87.3%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.01 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.54 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 96.8% (1X — FK Crvena Zvezda win or draw).
These values were computed from 938 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win87.3%

Draw9.6%

Cukaricki to win3.2%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time66.7%

Level at half-time29.1%

Cukaricki lead at half-time4.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Crvena Zvezda ahead or level95.8%

12 — not level at half-time70.9%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead33.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 938 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 11Actual: 11
Cukaricki: at least 14Actual: 6

Corners

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 6Actual: 7
Cukaricki: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score3.01

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 121% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score0.54

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–013.8%2–013.4%4–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.