Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 17

TSC Backa Topola–Radnik Surdulica

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Radnik SurdulicaĐ. Jovanović (assist: H. Hajdarevic)
43'Radnik SurdulicaS. Chinedu · red card
61'Radnik SurdulicaD. Owusu (assist: A. Pejović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		Radnik Surdulica
14	Shots	5
1	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	0
2	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
523	Passes	234
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 1.53 · Radnik Surdulica 1.13. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 14 · Radnik Surdulica 5; on target 1 and 4.
TSC Backa Topola kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

A. Zivkovic→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for TSC Backa Topola, 1.13 for Radnik Surdulica.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (1X — TSC Backa Topola win or draw).
These values were computed from 935 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win46.1%

Draw27.4%

Radnik Surdulica to win26.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time42.2%

Radnik Surdulica lead at half-time34.0%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level66.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Radnik Surdulica ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 935 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 14Actual: 18
Radnik Surdulica: at least 15Actual: 18

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 4
Radnik Surdulica: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.53

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnik Surdulica's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnik Surdulica score1.13

Attack: Radnik Surdulica score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–110.2%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.