Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 16

Napredak–Cukaricki

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

25'CukarickiStefan Bukorac (own goal)
51'NapredakA. Majdevac (assist: L. Zlicic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napredak		Cukaricki
6	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	9
2	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
275	Passes	453
174	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napredak 1.11 · Cukaricki 1.56. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Napredak 6 · Cukaricki 17; on target 1 and 6.
Cukaricki kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Nenad Minaković, Serbia→

5.20

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Napredak, 1.56 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (X2 — draw or Cukaricki win).
These values were computed from 922 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napredak to win25.8%

Draw27.2%

Cukaricki to win47.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	20

6	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Napredak lead at half-time15.9%

Level at half-time39.1%

Cukaricki lead at half-time45.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Napredak ahead or level54.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead84.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 922 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napredak: at least 13Actual: 14
Cukaricki: at least 14Actual: 20

Corners

Napredak: at least 4Actual: 2
Cukaricki: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napredak score1.11

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.56

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–210.3%0–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.