Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 15

Železničar Pančevo–Javor

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Železničar PančevoNemanja Vidojević (assist: S. Jasper)
27'Železničar PančevoN. Jovanovic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Železničar Pančevo		Javor
13	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	5
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	7
0	Offsides	4
51%	Possession	49%
444	Passes	412
358	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Železničar Pančevo 1.40 · Javor 1.16. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Železničar Pančevo 13 · Javor 9; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

Stefan Jeknic, Serbia→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Železničar Pančevo to win”. Second comes “Javor to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Železničar Pančevo, 1.16 for Javor.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 917 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Železničar Pančevo to win41.8%

Draw28.4%

Javor to win29.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time41.3%

Javor lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Železničar Pančevo ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Javor ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 917 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Železničar Pančevo: at least 13Actual: 10
Javor: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Železničar Pančevo: at least 5Actual: 5
Javor: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.40

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Javor score1.16

Attack: Javor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–09.9%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.