Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 11

Cukaricki–Javor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'CukarickiN. Tomović (assist: M. Docić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cukaricki		Javor
9	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	11
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
468	Passes	416
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cukaricki 1.63 · Javor 1.12. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Cukaricki 9 · Javor 9; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

Srdan Jovanovic, Serbia→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.9%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Cukaricki, 1.12 for Javor.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Cukaricki win or draw).
These values were computed from 886 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cukaricki to win48.9%

Draw26.4%

Javor to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cukaricki lead at half-time36.0%

Level at half-time43.2%

Javor lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Cukaricki ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Javor ahead64.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 886 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cukaricki: at least 13Actual: 14
Javor: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Cukaricki: at least 4Actual: 8
Javor: at least 3Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cukaricki score1.63

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Javor score1.12

Attack: Javor score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.5%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.