Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 3

OFK Beograd–Javor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'OFK BeogradPetar Petrović (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFK Beograd		Javor
7	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
407	Passes	261
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFK Beograd 1.84 · Javor 0.90. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots OFK Beograd 7 · Javor 14; on target 2 and 3.
OFK Beograd kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Stefan Jeknic, Serbia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.7%: “OFK Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for OFK Beograd, 0.90 for Javor.
The highest double chance value is 83.6% (1X — OFK Beograd win or draw).
These values were computed from 818 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFK Beograd to win59.7%

Draw23.9%

Javor to win16.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	21

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

OFK Beograd lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time39.9%

Javor lead at half-time14.1%

First-half double chance

1X — OFK Beograd ahead or level85.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Javor ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 818 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFK Beograd: at least 13Actual: 21
Javor: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

OFK Beograd: at least 5Actual: 3
Javor: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.84

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Javor score0.90

Attack: Javor score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–011.2%1–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.