Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

AS Roma–Spezia

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 June 2023 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Roma

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'SpeziaD. Nikolaou (assist: M. Bourabia)
43'AS RomaNicola Zalewski (assist: Stephan El Shaarawy)
88'SpeziaK. Amian · red card
90+1'AS RomaPaulo Dybala (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Spezia
19	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
516	Passes	232
447	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.81 · Spezia 0.74. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AS Roma 19 · Spezia 8; on target 5 and 2.
AS Roma kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

F. Maresca→

5.64

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for AS Roma, 0.92 for Spezia.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 375 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win54.0%

Draw26.3%

Spezia to win19.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	9

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AS Roma win or draw80.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.7%

X2 — draw or Spezia win46.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

AS Roma lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time45.0%

Spezia lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Spezia ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 375 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 10Actual: 14
Spezia: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

AS Roma: at least 5Actual: 6
Spezia: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.81

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spezia concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spezia score0.74

Attack: Spezia score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–011.9%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 375 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 37 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.