Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Napoli–Sampdoria

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 June 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'NapoliV. Osimhen (penalty)
85'NapoliGiovanni Simeone (assist: Giacomo Raspadori)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Sampdoria
21	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	7
11	Corners	0
1	Offsides	0
73%	Possession	27%
771	Passes	280
713	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 2.59 · Sampdoria 0.39. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Napoli 21 · Sampdoria 6; on target 9 and 4.
Napoli kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

E. Feliciani→

4.62

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 89.5%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 7.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.47 for Napoli, 0.65 for Sampdoria.
The highest double chance value is 97.2% (1X — Napoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 374 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win89.5%

Draw7.6%

Sampdoria to win2.8%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Napoli lead at half-time60.7%

Level at half-time34.4%

Sampdoria lead at half-time4.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Napoli ahead or level95.2%

12 — not level at half-time65.6%

X2 — level or Sampdoria ahead39.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 374 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napoli: at least 11Actual: 7
Sampdoria: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Napoli: at least 6
Sampdoria: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score2.59

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Sampdoria concede 44% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.59 goals.

How many goals Sampdoria score0.39

Attack: Sampdoria score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–011.7%4–010.2%2–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.