Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Spezia–Torino

0–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 May 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'TorinoP. Wiśniewski (own goal)
72'TorinoSamuele Ricci (assist: Nikola Vlašić)
76'TorinoIvan Ilić (assist: Nikola Vlašić)
90+6'TorinoY. Karamoh (assist: A. Sanabria)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spezia		Torino
9	Shots	11
1	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	2
4	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
323	Passes	350
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spezia 1.05 · Torino 1.28. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Spezia 9 · Torino 11; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

M. Guida→

3.00

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Spezia to win”. Second comes “Torino to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Spezia, 1.07 for Torino.
The highest double chance value is 69.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 361 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spezia to win37.6%

Draw30.7%

Torino to win31.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Spezia lead at half-time22.9%

Level at half-time46.3%

Torino lead at half-time30.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Spezia ahead or level69.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Torino ahead77.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 361 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spezia: at least 11Actual: 14
Torino: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Spezia: at least 4Actual: 5
Torino: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spezia score1.05

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Torino concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Torino score1.28

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spezia concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–011.6%0–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.