Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 36

Lecce–Spezia

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 May 2023 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lecce		Spezia
6	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	0
1	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
40%	Possession	60%
268	Passes	415
183	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lecce 1.41 · Spezia 0.93. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Lecce 6 · Spezia 14; on target 1 and 0.
Spezia kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

M. Mariani→

4.92

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “Lecce to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Lecce, 0.93 for Spezia.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — Lecce win or draw).
These values were computed from 354 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lecce to win47.9%

Draw28.8%

Spezia to win23.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lecce lead at half-time32.7%

Level at half-time44.4%

Spezia lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Lecce ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Spezia ahead67.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 354 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lecce: at least 11Actual: 15
Spezia: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Lecce: at least 5Actual: 2
Spezia: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lecce score1.41

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Spezia concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spezia score0.93

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lecce's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–012.8%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.