1. SNL · Slovenia · Relegation - Final

Nafta–Primorje

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

90'NaftaA. Marosa

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nafta 1.68 · Primorje 1.13. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

A. Matkovic→

4.90

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Nafta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Nafta, 1.13 for Primorje.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (1X — Nafta win or draw).
These values were computed from 700 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nafta to win49.9%

Draw25.9%

Primorje to win24.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Nafta win or draw75.9%

12 — any result other than a draw74.1%

X2 — draw or Primorje win50.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nafta lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time43.1%

Primorje lead at half-time26.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Nafta ahead or level73.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Primorje ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 699 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nafta: at least 11
Primorje: at least 11

Corners

Nafta: at least 4
Primorje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,890 of 5,366 predictions were correct (53.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nafta score1.68

Attack: Nafta score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Primorje concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Primorje score1.13

Attack: Primorje score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nafta concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.6%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.