1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 36

Radomlje–Mura

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Friday, 22 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'MuraK. Kurtovic (assist: Z. Petrovic)
11'RadomljeV. Pelko (assist: D. Ikenna)
17'RadomljeV. Pelko
57'MuraN. Kasalo (assist: Nino Kouter)
75'RadomljeP. Klancir (assist: F. Meznar)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomlje 1.61 · Mura 1.18. On the pitch: 3-2.

Referee

B. Bejzak→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Radomlje to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Radomlje, 1.18 for Mura.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (1X — Radomlje win or draw).
These values were computed from 696 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomlje to win46.9%

Draw26.6%

Mura to win26.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Radomlje win or draw73.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Mura win53.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Radomlje lead at half-time39.3%

Level at half-time40.3%

Mura lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomlje ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Mura ahead60.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 695 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomlje: at least 11
Mura: at least 10

Corners

Radomlje: at least 5
Mura: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomlje score1.61

Attack: Radomlje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mura's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mura score1.18

Attack: Mura score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.3%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.