1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 35

Aluminij–Primorje

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aluminij 1.93 · Primorje 1.08. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

A. Begic→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.2%: “Aluminij to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Aluminij, 1.08 for Primorje.
The highest double chance value is 80.7% (1X — Aluminij win or draw).
These values were computed from 693 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aluminij to win57.2%

Draw23.5%

Primorje to win19.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Aluminij win or draw80.7%

12 — any result other than a draw76.5%

X2 — draw or Primorje win42.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aluminij lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time42.4%

Primorje lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Aluminij ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Primorje ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 692 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aluminij: at least 12
Primorje: at least 11

Corners

Aluminij: at least 4
Primorje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,398 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aluminij score1.93

Attack: Aluminij score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Primorje concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Primorje score1.08

Attack: Primorje score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aluminij concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–111.0%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.