1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 34

Primorje–Mura

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Nogometni stadion Ajdovšcina, Nova Gorica

Share on X

Goals and red cards

45'MuraNino Kouter (assist: A. Korošec)
49'MuraL. Turudija (assist: F. Sana)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Primorje 1.38 · Mura 1.24. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

R. Obrenovic→

4.76

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Primorje to win”. Second comes “Mura to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Primorje, 1.24 for Mura.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 691 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Primorje to win39.2%

Draw28.3%

Mura to win32.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Primorje win or draw67.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.7%

X2 — draw or Mura win60.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Primorje lead at half-time35.2%

Level at half-time41.8%

Mura lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Primorje ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Mura ahead64.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 690 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Primorje: at least 11
Mura: at least 10

Corners

Primorje: at least 5
Mura: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Primorje score1.38

Attack: Primorje score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mura's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mura score1.24

Attack: Mura score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Primorje concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.4%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.