1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 34

Koper–Aluminij

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

69'KoperB. Irabor

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Koper 2.63 · Aluminij 0.82. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

B. Mertik→

4.81

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.9%: “Koper to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.63 for Koper, 0.82 for Aluminij.
The highest double chance value is 92.0% (1X — Koper win or draw).
These values were computed from 690 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Koper to win76.9%

Draw15.1%

Aluminij to win8.0%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Koper win or draw92.0%

12 — any result other than a draw84.9%

X2 — draw or Aluminij win23.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Koper lead at half-time70.9%

Level at half-time25.9%

Aluminij lead at half-time3.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Koper ahead or level96.8%

12 — not level at half-time74.1%

X2 — level or Aluminij ahead29.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 689 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Koper: at least 13
Aluminij: at least 12

Corners

Koper: at least 5
Aluminij: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 971 of 1,387 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Koper score2.63

Attack: Koper score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Aluminij concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.63 goals.

How many goals Aluminij score0.82

Attack: Aluminij score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Koper concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.1%3–09.9%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.