1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 33

Olimpija Ljubljana–Primorje

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Olimpija LjubljanaDino Kojić (assist: A. Marin)
63'Olimpija LjubljanaD. Mitrovski (assist: Dino Kojić)
81'Olimpija LjubljanaK. Ofori (assist: Dino Kojić)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 2.21 · Primorje 0.73. On the pitch: 3-0.

Referee

D. Halilovic→

5.70

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.9%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.21 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 0.73 for Primorje.
The highest double chance value is 90.5% (1X — Olimpija Ljubljana win or draw).
These values were computed from 685 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win71.9%

Draw18.6%

Primorje to win9.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time46.4%

Level at half-time40.1%

Primorje lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Primorje ahead53.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 684 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 11
Primorje: at least 11

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 5
Primorje: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score2.21

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Primorje concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Primorje score0.73

Attack: Primorje score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.4%1–011.0%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.