1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 30

Bravo–Primorje

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 15 April 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park Šiška, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'PrimorjeE. Demirovic (assist: R. Murillo)
72'BravoG. Jovan (assist: L. Lukanic)
78'BravoK. Toibibou

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bravo 2.22 · Primorje 0.94. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

B. Mertik→

4.78

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.7%: “Bravo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.22 for Bravo, 0.94 for Primorje.
The highest double chance value is 86.7% (1X — Bravo win or draw).
These values were computed from 674 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bravo to win66.7%

Draw20.0%

Primorje to win13.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–1

Bravo lead at half-time48.6%

Level at half-time36.6%

Primorje lead at half-time14.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Bravo ahead or level85.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.4%

X2 — level or Primorje ahead51.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 673 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bravo: at least 11
Primorje: at least 11

Corners

Bravo: at least 5
Primorje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bravo score2.22

Attack: Bravo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Primorje concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Primorje score0.94

Attack: Primorje score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bravo's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.6%1–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.