1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 30

Koper–Maribor

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 14 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'KoperJ. Iličić (penalty)
50'MariborB. M'bondo · red card
61'KoperL. Rimac (assist: B. Ndiaye)
87'KoperB. Ndiaye
90'MariborMetod Jurhar (own goal)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Koper 1.48 · Maribor 1.40. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

D. Halilovic→

5.44

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Koper to win”. Second comes “Maribor to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Koper, 1.40 for Maribor.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 673 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Koper to win38.5%

Draw26.9%

Maribor to win34.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–0

Koper lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time40.8%

Maribor lead at half-time32.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Koper ahead or level68.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Maribor ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 672 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Koper: at least 12
Maribor: at least 11

Corners

Koper: at least 4
Maribor: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Koper score1.48

Attack: Koper score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.48 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Maribor score1.40

Attack: Maribor score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Koper's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–19.4%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.