1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 29

Radomlje–Celje

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'CeljeJuanjo Nieto (assist: A. Kotnik)
31'RadomljeF. Meznar (assist: A. Pogacar)
37'CeljeN. Iosifov (assist: Milot Avdyli)
77'CeljeR. Pozeg (assist: A. Kotnik)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radomlje 1.06 · Celje 2.24. On the pitch: 1-3.

Referee

A. Jeric→

4.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.4%: “Celje to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Radomlje, 2.24 for Celje.
The highest double chance value is 84.7% (X2 — draw or Celje win).
These values were computed from 672 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radomlje to win15.3%

Draw20.4%

Celje to win64.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–2

Radomlje lead at half-time20.4%

Level at half-time39.8%

Celje lead at half-time39.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Radomlje ahead or level60.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Celje ahead79.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 671 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radomlje: at least 11
Celje: at least 11

Corners

Radomlje: at least 4
Celje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radomlje score1.06

Attack: Radomlje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celje score2.24

Attack: Celje score 50% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.24 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–19.7%0–29.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.