1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 29

Olimpija Ljubljana–Aluminij

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

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Goals and red cards

62'Olimpija LjubljanaÁlex Blanco (assist: J. Çelhaka)
68'Olimpija LjubljanaA. Marin (penalty)
73'AluminijJ. Pejic

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 2.00 · Aluminij 0.88. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

M. Matosa→

5.17

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.9%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 0.88 for Aluminij.
The highest double chance value is 85.8% (1X — Olimpija Ljubljana win or draw).
These values were computed from 670 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win63.9%

Draw21.9%

Aluminij to win14.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana win or draw85.8%

12 — any result other than a draw78.1%

X2 — draw or Aluminij win36.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time60.1%

Level at half-time33.2%

Aluminij lead at half-time6.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level93.4%

12 — not level at half-time66.8%

X2 — level or Aluminij ahead39.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 669 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 12
Aluminij: at least 12

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 6
Aluminij: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score2.00

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aluminij concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aluminij score0.88

Attack: Aluminij score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.5%1–111.1%2–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.