Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 35

Spezia–AC Milan

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'SpeziaP. Wiśniewski
85'SpeziaSalvatore Esposito

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spezia		AC Milan
14	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	9
1	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
269	Passes	393
188	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spezia 0.94 · AC Milan 1.74. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Spezia 14 · AC Milan 14; on target 4 and 3.
AC Milan kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

D. Doveri→

3.68

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for Spezia, 1.55 for AC Milan.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (X2 — draw or AC Milan win).
These values were computed from 342 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spezia to win21.4%

Draw27.3%

AC Milan to win51.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Spezia win or draw48.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.7%

X2 — draw or AC Milan win78.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Spezia lead at half-time19.5%

Level at half-time42.6%

AC Milan lead at half-time37.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Spezia ahead or level62.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or AC Milan ahead80.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 342 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spezia: at least 11Actual: 15
AC Milan: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Spezia: at least 4Actual: 6
AC Milan: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spezia score0.94

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AC Milan score1.74

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Spezia concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%0–112.1%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 342 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 34 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.