1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 26

Primorje–Aluminij

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Nogometni stadion Ajdovšcina, Nova Gorica

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'PrimorjeZ. Besir
90'PrimorjeZ. Besir (assist: L. Štor)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Primorje 1.45 · Aluminij 1.68. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

Z. Jazbec→

3.13

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Aluminij to win”. Second comes “Primorje to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Primorje, 1.68 for Aluminij.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 660 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Primorje to win32.1%

Draw25.5%

Aluminij to win42.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Primorje lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time39.1%

Aluminij lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Primorje ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Aluminij ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 659 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Primorje: at least 12
Aluminij: at least 12

Corners

Primorje: at least 5
Aluminij: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Primorje score1.45

Attack: Primorje score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aluminij concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aluminij score1.68

Attack: Aluminij score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Primorje concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–29.8%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.