1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 25

Aluminij–Koper

2–4

HT 1–4

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'KoperJ. Iličić (assist: B. Ndiaye)
12'KoperJ. Iličić (assist: L. Rimac)
28'AluminijU. Korun
32'KoperB. Ndiaye (assist: F. Hartherz)
35'KoperJ. Longonda (assist: A. Ruedl)
89'AluminijA. Bloudek

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aluminij 1.52 · Koper 1.76. On the pitch: 2-4.

Referee

A. Bubek→

4.66

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Koper to win”. Second comes “Aluminij to win” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Aluminij, 1.76 for Koper.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 655 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aluminij to win32.3%

Draw24.9%

Koper to win42.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–4

Aluminij lead at half-time19.4%

Level at half-time39.6%

Koper lead at half-time41.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Aluminij ahead or level59.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Koper ahead80.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 654 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aluminij: at least 12
Koper: at least 12

Corners

Aluminij: at least 4
Koper: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aluminij score1.52

Attack: Aluminij score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Koper's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Koper score1.76

Attack: Koper score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Aluminij's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–29.7%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.