1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 24

Maribor–Radomlje

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ljudski vrt, Maribor

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'MariborN. Viher (assist: T. Cipot)
41'RadomljeJ. Martincic
65'MariborD. Pejicic (assist: B. Tetteh)
81'RadomljeM. Žaper (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maribor 2.27 · Radomlje 0.82. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

B. Mertik→

4.68

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.7%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for Maribor, 0.82 for Radomlje.
The highest double chance value is 89.4% (1X — Maribor win or draw).
These values were computed from 649 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maribor to win70.7%

Draw18.6%

Radomlje to win10.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 913 of 1,223 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–1

Maribor lead at half-time58.3%

Level at half-time34.2%

Radomlje lead at half-time7.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maribor ahead or level92.4%

12 — not level at half-time65.8%

X2 — level or Radomlje ahead41.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 648 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maribor: at least 11
Radomlje: at least 11

Corners

Maribor: at least 4
Radomlje: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maribor score2.27

Attack: Maribor score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Radomlje's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radomlje score0.82

Attack: Radomlje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.0%2–110.6%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.