1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 23

Olimpija Ljubljana–Koper

3–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'KoperB. Oddei
52'Olimpija LjubljanaA. Muhamedbegović (assist: D. Mitrovski)
58'KoperJ. Longonda (assist: B. Ndiaye)
64'KoperB. Ndiaye
77'Olimpija LjubljanaDino Kojić (assist: Agustín Doffo)
90'Olimpija LjubljanaPedro Lucas (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 1.63 · Koper 1.13. On the pitch: 3-3.

Referee

D. Halilovic→

5.29

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 1.13 for Koper.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (1X — Olimpija Ljubljana win or draw).
These values were computed from 645 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win48.3%

Draw26.5%

Koper to win25.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time42.9%

Level at half-time40.0%

Koper lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Koper ahead57.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 644 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 11
Koper: at least 12

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 5
Koper: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score1.63

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Koper's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Koper score1.13

Attack: Koper score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.5%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.